THE FRAMEWORK

Deterministic rules used by our Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking analysts to establish technical and economic ground truth

Engine 1: Astrophysical Logic

Composition Inference

C-Type

Carbonaceous

🌊 Water ice (10-20%)

⛽ Volatile organics

🎯 Primary use: Fuel & life support

Location: Outer main belt (>2.7 AU)

S-Type

Stony / Silicate

🪨 Iron (10-25%)

🏗️ Nickel, magnesium silicates

🎯 Primary use: Construction materials

Location: Inner main belt (<2.5 AU)

M-Type

Metallic

💎 Platinum-group metals

🔩 Iron-nickel alloys (70-95%)

🎯 Primary use: High-value extraction

Location: Mid main belt (~2.5 AU)

Inner vs. Outer Belt Heuristic

When explicit spectral data is unavailable, we use albedo and orbital distance as proxies:

Low Albedo (<0.10) + Outer Belt

→ Likely C-Type (carbonaceous, water-rich)

Moderate Albedo (0.10-0.25) + Inner Belt

→ Likely S-Type (stony, construction-grade)

Engine 2: Astrodynamic Logic

The Energy Cost

Tsiolkovsky Rocket Equation

\Delta v = I_{sp} \cdot g_0 \cdot \ln\left(\frac{m_0}{m_f}\right)

Δv = Change in velocity (delta-v)

I_sp = Specific impulse

g_0 = Standard gravity (9.81 m/s²)

m_0/m_f = Initial/final mass ratio

Accessibility Tiers

Tier 1

Δv < 4.5 km/s

🚀 Most accessible — Lower fuel costs, near-term viable

Tier 2

4.5 km/s ≤ Δv ≤ 7.0 km/s

⚠️ Moderate difficulty — Requires advanced propulsion

Tier 3

Δv > 7.0 km/s

🛑 Prohibitively expensive — Future technology required

Engine 3: Economic Logic

NPV & Market Damping

Net Present Value Formula

NPV = \sum_{t=0}^{T} \frac{R_t - (O_t + L_t)}{(1+r)^t} - C_{CapEx}

R_t = Revenue at time t

O_t = Operating costs

L_t = Logistics costs

r = Discount rate (20%-35%)

C_CapEx = Capital expenditure

T = Mission timeline

Deep-Space Risk Premium

We apply a 20%-35% discount rate to account for deep-space mission risks including technical failures, delays, and regulatory uncertainties.

Price Decay vs. Global Supply

Supply Impact	Retained Price	Market Condition
1% of global supply	100% (Spot price)	Premium pricing
10% of global supply	50% (Bulk discount)	Wholesale pricing
100% of global supply	1% (Market crash)	Catastrophic oversupply

Engine 4: Risk Logic

Mission Deal-Breakers

Orbit Uncertainty

U-Code > 5

Asteroids with high orbital uncertainty (U-Code > 5) pose significant targeting risks. The position error can exceed millions of kilometers, making rendezvous missions unreliable.

Risk Threshold:

U > 5

Below U=5: Acceptable • Above U=5: Mission prohibitive

The 2.2-Hour Spin Barrier

Rotation Period < 2.2h

Asteroids spinning faster than once every 2.2 hours are likely "rubble piles" held together by friction alone. Landing or extracting from these objects is extremely hazardous.

Structural Implications:

• > 2.2h: Likely monolithic (safe to land)
• ≈ 2.2h: Marginal structural integrity
• < 2.2h: Rubble pile (unsafe)

These four engines work in concert to evaluate asteroid mining feasibility. Every valuation passes through all four filters to ensure both economic viability and technical reality.